(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/merrill-lynch-puts-a-buy-on-ivrcl-infra-with-a-price-target-of-rs-421/)
Merrill Lynch
India Research
IVRCL Infrastructures (IIFRF)-Reiterate BUY with a PO of Rs 421
Our PO of Rs 421 is based on the SOTP valuation. We have valued IVRCL core construction business 12x estimated 1 year forward earnings, a 25pct discount to E&C majors at Rs304 per share.
Hind-dorr-Oliver where IVRCL has 52.8pct stake is valued at CMP giving a per share value of Rs6 IVR Prime where IVRCL has 62.3pct stake is valued at 60pct discount to NPV at Rs62 per share in line with Mid Cap real estate companies.
Chennai desalination plant where IVRCL has 75pct stake is valued on a DCF basis at Rs12 per share. Similarly, Jalandhar-Amritsar project, Kumarapalayam-Chengapally project, and Salem-Kumarapalayam project where IVRCL has 100pct stake are valued based on DCF of Rs7, Rs12 and Rs17 per share respectively.
We arrive at an SOTP value of Rs421. Risks: Unrelated acquisition in Oil & Gas space, Government capex, raw material costs, competition, traffic/interest rate risk in toll/annuity projects and project execution risk.
Safe Harbor Statement:
Some forward looking statements on projections, estimates, expectations & outlook are included to enable a better comprehension of the Company prospects. Actual results may, however, differ materially from those stated on account of factors such as changes in government regulations, tax regimes, economic developments within India and the countries within which the Company conducts its business, exchange rate and interest rate movements, impact of competing products and their pricing, product demand and supply constraints.
Nothing in this article is, or should be construed as, investment advice.
Source : Maverick
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/ivrcl-shares-up-2-on-rs-746-crore-orders/)
MUMBAI: Shares of IVRCL Infrastrcuture & Projects gathered momentum Tuesday after it announced that the buildings and industrial division of the company bagged orders worth Rs 746.26 crore.
The orders were for works across the country. The realty firm will undertake a turnkey housing project for AP Cine Workers Co-operative Housing Society at Hyderabad for Rs 550.28 crore.
The second order worth Rs 114.35 crore was for the construction of a CIDCO Exhibition Centre at Vashi. It will also provide EPC services on turnkey basis for new habitation for tsunami affected victims at Puduchery worth Rs 70.62 crore and also the construction of an IT park at Durgapur for Rs 11.01 crore.
At 1 pm, IVRCL shares were up 2.35 per cent at Rs 168 after touching a high of Rs 172.40.
Source : Economic Times
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/george-bush/)
President Bush has not endeared himself to the world during his Presidency...90% of his Presidency was post 9/11 and protecting America was his first goal and removing threats to America was his second goal. In time we will know the success or failure of his administration.
9/11 was the first foreign attack on American soil since Pearl Harbor in 1941...looking through this lens gives you some perspective on George Bush's priorities.
From the perspective of India, after the disastrous Clinton years, George Bush has been a good friend...no emotions, no nonsense. He recognized the reality of India, the incorrectness of Clinton's behaviour and policies and set about correcting the relationship. India's needs and wants were given their rightful place; the historical significance of India's achievements in democracy and economic growth was recognized and responsibile behaviour with respect to nuclear proliferation was rewarded. Today, the great democracies share a special and growing relationship...while it is a little like being in a cage with an elephant...George Bush has single handedly transformed this relationship.
While it is possible the USA is safer today what about the World? I can only point again to the resources in manpower and finance that the USA is expending around the world to fight the war on terrorists. India, the Middle-East and Asia have prioritized and executed short term tactics. USA on the other hand usually has a very long term objective and uses short-term tactics and strategies in pursuance of the longer term goal. I can only tell you that India and the Middle-East have not been successful in keeping our nations or neighborhood safe. While I lament the loss of life in the Iraq war and perhaps even the loss of "International Law" no one will argue the case for restoring Saddam Hussein. We are all glad to be rid of the dictator...as long as we did not have to do the dirty work.
Is Iraq better off today? I do not know, however, amongst the rubble and terrorist attacks I see Iraqis arguing and fighting about their future. Surely that is a good sign...if the people get representation there is hope for the future.
A couple of days ago a newsman threw shoes at President Bush during a news conference in Baghdad...the agile President ducked but the newsman was pinned and jailed...there are demonstrations in Baghdad for the newsman's release and he is being hailed as a hero. Would they prefer Saddam Hussein? These people do not even appreciate the fact that they are now able to demonstrate, freely....amazing denial of reality. If the shoe had been thrown at Saddam what would have happened to the newsman?
I have included the BBC link for the "shoe attack" but watch the ending short interview clip with President Bush; he says "I don't know what his beef is" referring to the newsman who threw the shoe. This naivete is infuriating...if the shoe had hit his head I wonder if it would have jarred enough neurons to understand the source of all the anger.
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/free-nifty-future-tips-16-12-08/)
BELOW 2960 TARGET 2917-2880-2803
-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
MARKETCALLS
http://ping.fm/179rV
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/intraday-calls-as-on-161208/)
Sell RELIANCE Target: 1322, 1310 SL: 1335
Sell ICICI BANK Target: 408,404 SL: 418
Sell RCOM Target: 231,224 SL: 238
Buy RELIANCE 1281, Target: 1292, 1300 SL: 1276
Sell Nifty2900CE Target: 120,105 SL: 136
Sell Nifty2700CE Target: 265,250 SL: 285
Buy Nifty2900PE Target: 77, 90 SL: 60
Buy on Dips and Sell on Rallies
Original : LINK
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/indian-stocks-what-will-drive-earnings-growth/)
Lee's Dhaba for more
From 1999 onwards, Indian companies used foreign capital inflows and an abundance of skilled, cheap manpower to generate sustained profit growth for the last ten years. This capital inflow has been cut-off due to the global financial crisis; while I continue to argue that India is under-leveraged, what will be the driver for future growth?
The first chart shows the cumulative inflow of foreign capital from 1999 to November 2009. The total peaked at Rs 246K crores in Dec 2007; since then there has been an exodus of Rs 50K cr.(click on image for sharper picture)
The second chart shows that Foreign flows by themselves were the 'Driver' of India's growth story. As soon as these flows started to reverse so did the equity markets and India GDP.
(click on image for sharper picture)
We know the problems facing the hedge fund and private equity players globally; sovereign wealth funds have also been hard hit. Declining oil prices will put pressure on Middle-Eastern investment funds. Redemption's and risk risk-aversion are still very much in evidence; Look at the TED spread, the developed world's corporate bond spreads and the 0% yield on US Treasury bills.
A substantial fiscal stimulus could have been the 'Driver' that propels India onto a new growth trajectory...but the administration in India has fumbled the ball..at least so far.
Any rally in the equity markets can only be sustained with growing earnings. Under the current circumstances easing of monetary conditions may stabilize the situation but they are not sufficient to Drive growth.
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/2008-capture-the-year-in-words/)
2008: Capture the Year in Words
Hat tip Mala: * In the working-class community of Weymouth, south of Boston, Easter's Country Kitchen, a crowded little diner, captured the mood in a notice near the food counter:
""DUE TO BUDGET CUTS, THE LIGHT AT THE END OF THE TUNNEL IS BEING TURNED OFF."
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/asia-as-engine-of-growthwhere-are-the-consumers/)
Despite the administrations pleas there have been lay-offs..expect this to accelerate.
There are so many articles on global growth depending on Asia; so I went looking for corroborating evidence...it turns out that the "engine of growth" is sputtering. China GDP growth will halve and still represent 80% of global GDP growth in 2009. However, there is nothing to suggest that Asia is suddenly going to become a monothic group of consumers.
On the contrary, the news is dreary. Here is a potpourri of news articles/blogs on China in the past few days; the titles are descriptive enough:
China joins U.S., Japan with shrinking oil demand
Negative Q4 2008 GDP in China
IMF sees Chinese growth halved as downturn spreads
Chinese Electrical Output Fell 9.6% in November
China To Print Money To Combat Deep Slowdown
As China economy brakes, oil demand goes in reverse
China Data sparks Deflation worries
China's exports fall for first time in seven years
Global Trade is shrinking fast
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/intraday-tips-and-market-outlook-for-16th-dec-from-indianmoneypluscom/)
Source - IndianMoneyplus.Com US markets were trading choppy yesterday.
Europe ended flat. Asia has opened marginally lower.
I expect Indian markets to open lower.
Banking and Infra stocks can see a rally today.
The support for the Sensex is 9750 and the resistance to the up move is at 10000-10324
Nifty: (2981) the support for the Nifty is at 2920 and the resistance to the up move is at 3113
Day Trading Ideas
Bajaj Auto
Buy Above 249.17 for targets of 253.2 and 256.62
Sell below 246.10 for targets of 245.83 and 241.72
Asian Paints
Buy Above 862 for targets of 870 and 877
Sell below 852 for targets of 846 and 835
DLF
Buy Above 284 for targets of 288 and 293
Sell below 280 for targets of 274 and 270
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/market-review-for-16th-december-2008/)
BSE Sensex: (9832) the market managed to inch towards the psychological 10000 mark and felt shy and has closed positive for the day and in the process generated an indecisive bar …technically the trend is still intact up but the market is expected to be volatile and profit near the 10000 mark is not ruled out.
The support for the Sensex is 9750 and the resistance to the up move is at 10000-10324
Nifty: (2981) the support for the Nifty is at 2920 and the resistance to the up move is at 3113
Source : PrakashGaba
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/attarctive-valuable-stocks-nandan-exim-celestial-labs-pochiraju-ind/)
ATTARCTIVE VALUABLE STOCKS NANDAN EXIM, CELESTIAL LABS & POCHIRAJU IND.
MARKET IS STABILIZING WILL TOUCH NIFTY 3,200 TO 3,600 AND SENSEX 10,000 TO 10,900 SOON BEFORE END OF THIS MONTH.
MID & SMALL CAP RALLY WILL CONTINUE; SO BUY SOME GOOD FUNDAMENTAL AND ATRACTIVE VALUABLE STOCKS LIKE:
1) POCHIRAJU INDUSTRIES AT 10.5/- EPS 4/- PE ONLY 2.5. ITS BIO PHARMA COMPANY RUNNING GOOD. RISK IS VERY VERY LESS.TARGET 15/- . MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
2) CELESTIAL LABS AT 19/- EPS 10/- PE ONLY 1.6. ITS PHARMA AND BIO-INFO SERVICES; STOCK IS AVIALBLE IS VERY VERY CHEEP RATE. ITS DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY. TARGET 35/-. MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
3) NANDAN EXIM AT 1.2/- ; SOME BIG MUMABI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK. BUY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE; YOU WILL GET MINIMUM 50% TO 100% RETURNS WITHIN 10 DAYS TO 15DAYS TIME.YEARLY LOW 0.85/- HIGH 9.65/- TARGET 2/-
Last week I have advised IFCI at 15.85/- Now IFCI is 24/-. 50% appreciation within one week time.
If you miss that opportunity buy above 3 stocks.
Same thing happening in above 3 stocks also for this week.
FORWARD THIS TO YOUR GROUPS AND FRIENDS ALSO; IT’S RISK FREE FOR INVESTMENTS.
REGARDS
BIG BULLS
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/resistance-for-the-nifty-at-3113-3168-gaba/)
Technical Analyst, Prakash Gaba:
We said ‘The structure is indicative that the market may once again trade in sideways range with no clear signs of direction so far witnessed on the charts. Our upside target of 10324 still remains with strong resistance around 9635 levels zones’.
The market unfolded as expected with three days of sideways movement and finally breaking out to close positive for the week despite negative industrial numbers indicating firmness in the days to come as negative news is being discounted by the marketTechnically the trend that started on 27th Oct 2008 is still intact UP and our upside target of 10324 still remains with some resistance being encountered around 10000 zones.
The crucial supports on the way down are at 8650 and resistances on the way up are at 10000-10324-10708.
The supports on the way down are at 2800 and resistances on the way up are at 3113-3168.
From a trading point of view I would be long in the market.
Source : MoneyControl
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/avoid-big-ticket-exposure-for-now-bhambwani/)
Technical Analyst, Vijay Bhambwani:
The markets behaved along expectations put forth yesterday for a weekend session. The 2905 bullish pivot did not hold and laid the tone for a weak session. The benchmark indices closed with minor changes, even as the technology sector continued to be the nemesis of the bulls. The traded volumes were lower as compared to the previous session, which is a routine weekend phenomena. The market breadth was positive as the BSE & NSE combined advance decline ratio was 2366 : 1233. The capitalisation of the breadth on a commensurate basis was also positive as the figures were Rs 11935 Crs : Rs 3662 Crs.
The indices have closed in the upper half the intraday band which shows buying on declines by short sellers. The same is corroborated by the oriental charts which indicate a "tonbo" formation that indicates a resistance by the bulls to let go of positions. The intraday band of 2975 / 2860 levels advocated for Friday was violated on the downsides as the index made a long "shadow" on the Japanese charts.
The coming session is likely to witness a range of 3000 on advances and 2825 on declines. The bullish pivot will be at the 2885 above which the Nifty spot must remain if the bulls are to dominate the session. Conversely, a consistent trade below the 2860 levels, expect a weak outlook.
The market internals indicate a lower turnover as the participation levels fell due to the weekend factor. The number of trades decreased and the average ticket size was lower, indicating a weak buying bias. The capitalisation of the market was higher in line with an optimistic session.
The outlook for the markets today is that of caution as the bulls need to witness a closing above the 2950 - 2975 levels to see a sustained upmove. Ignore big ticket exposure for now.
Disclosure: The analyst has no exposure to any scrip/s recommended above.
Source : MoneyControl
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/expect-sideways-movements-vasudeo/)
Technical Analyst, Hitendra Vasudeo: Last week, the Sensex opened at 9276.89, attained a low during the week at 9095.70 and moved up to form a weekly high at 9746.01 before it closed the week at 9690.07 and thereby showed a net rise of 724 points on a week-to-week basis. The candle movement was also positive.
Weekly support will be at 9510, 9275, 9095 and 8965 levels and weekly resistance will be at 9925, 10575 and 10945 level.
The weekly candlestick movement was positive, which could take the price up to test the resistance of 9925-10575.
Another round of strong weekly movement is desired and a further follow-up rise is required. One-off weekly positive movement does not help apart from generating intra-day moves.
Broadly, we could categorize the market as a sideways market with volatility in a wider band of 10945-8316.
One major corrective cycle leg gets completed of the fall from 21206 to 8316.
New up-move in the form of a pull-back rise from 21206 to 8316 will begin. If the Sensex rallies past to cross 10945, then the near term bottom is made and the rally will be of the fall from 21206 to 8316. The pullback levels are placed at 13238-14757-16276. We can expect at least 13238 if the above wave could get confirmed with a hurdle around 11000 mark. For this wave count to remain in existence, the Sensex must not violate 8316.
Conclusion
Weekly rise towards pull-back levels could be seen but sustainability is an issue.
Strategy for the week
Investors with stuck-up long positions can look for opportunities to exit wherever possible and try to generate cash at higher levels. Traders can get to trade stock wise movements on both sides as the market could develop one day up and down the next day pattern.
Source : MoneyControl
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/free-nifty-future-tips-15-12-08/)
[caption id="attachment_5509" align="alignnone" width="300" caption="Nifty Future Chart"]
[/caption]-Always Remember, put SL in your every trade.
Rupesh Yatesh Dalal
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/intraday-tips-and-market-outlook-for-15th-dec-from-indianmoneypluscom/)
Source - IndianMoneyplus.Com US markets ended a positive note. Europe ended mixed.
Asia has opened higher note. It has opened with a gap up of over 3%.
Now Asian markets are making new highs.
Expect India to have a gap up opening.
The support for the Sensex is 9450 and the resistance to the up move is at 10000-10324
Nifty: (2920) the support for the Nifty is at 2860 and the resistance to the up move is at 3113
Day trading Ideas.
LNT
Buy Above 793 for targets of 710 and 716
Sell below 766 for targets of 759 and 752
Hindalco
Buy Above 53.25 for targets of 54.15 and 55.30
Sell below 51.10 for targets of 50.50 and 49.60
Rajesh Export
Buy Above 26.70 for targets of 27.80 and 28.90
Sell below 24.85 for targets of 24.10 and 23.15
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/weekly-news-letter-from-indianmoneypluscom/)
Source - IndianMoneyplus.Com Positive week. Good global cues. Falling inflation . Rate Cuts.
All the above reasons helped the markets to move upwards. SENSEX is a few hundred points away from touching 5 digit mark.
Auto stocks rallied in beginning of the week because of excise duty cut, but later gave up all its gain as the US auto majors didn’t get bailout.
We had smart recovery on Friday though all Asian and European markets were down.
FII’s are now buying a bit from Indian Markets.
The full impact of the rejection of the auto bailout package in the US may be felt in the week ahead across global markets. On the domestic front, the disastrous IIP number sent some fresh shock-waves and with a bleak outlook for Q309 results, the signs appear ominous.
More over most of the major economies are headed for recession.
An uncertain week ahead.
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/rocket-stocks-nandan-exim-celestial-labs-pochiraju-ind/)
MARKET IS STABILIZING WILL TOUCH NIFTY 3,200 TO 3,600 AND SENSEX 10,000 TO 10,900 SOON BEFORE END OF THIS MONTH.
FII'S ALSO BUYING STAGE BECAUSE ALL FII'S GOING TO CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS. NOW THEY ARE COVERING BECAUSE ALL STOCKS AVIALBLE VERY CHEEP RATES.
BECAUSE OF THAT ONLY THIS MONTH FII'S ARE BUYING STAGE. I THINK UP TO THIS MONTH MARKET WILL POSSITIVE.
MIDCAP AND SMALLCAP RALLY WILL COMING NEXT WEEK.
SO BUY SOME RISK FREE FUNDAMENTAL STOCKS LIKE
1) POCHIRAJU INDUSTRIES AT 9/- EPS 4/- PE ONLY 2. ITS BIO PHARMA COMPANY RUNNING GOOD. RISK IS VERY VERY LESS.TARGET 15/- . MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
2) CELESTIAL LABS AT 17/- EPS 10/- PE ONLY 1.6. ITS PHARMA AND BIO-INFO SERVICES; STOCK IS AVIALBLE IS VERY VERY CHEEP RATE. ITS DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY. TARGET 35/-. MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
3) NANDAN EXIM AT 1/- ; SOME BIG MUMABI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK. BUY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE; YOU WILL GET MINIMUM 50% TO 100% RETURNS WITHIN 10 DAYS TO 15DAYS TIME.YEARLY LOW 0.85/- HIGH 9.65/- TARGET 2/-
Last week I have advised IFCI at 15.85/- Now IFCI is 21/-. 30% appreciation within one week time.
If you miss that opportunity buy above 3 stocks.
Same thing happening in above 3 stocks also for this week.
FORWARD THIS TO YOUR GROUPS AND FRIENDS ALSO; IT’S RISK FREE FOR INVESTMENTS.
REGARDS
BIG BULLS
(My Original Blog Post: -*http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/good-valuable-stocks-at-present-market-with-no-risk/)
GOOD VALUABLE STOCKS AT PRESENT MARKET WITH NO RISK
MARKET IS STABILIZING WILL TOUCH NIFTY 3,200 TO 3,600 AND SENSEX 10,000 TO 10,900 SOON BEFORE END OF THIS MONTH.
FII'S ALSO BUYING STAGE BECAUSE ALL FII'S GOING TO CHRISTMAS HOLIDAYS. NOW THEY ARE COVERING BECAUSE ALL STOCKS AVIALBLE VERY CHEEP RATES.
BECAUSE OF THAT ONLY THIS MONTH FII'S ARE BUYING STAGE. I THINK UP TO THIS MONTH MARKET WILL POSSITIVE.
MIDCAP AND SMALLCAP RALLY WILL COMING NEXT WEEK.
SO BUY SOME RISK FREE FUNDAMENTAL STOCKS LIKE
1) POCHIRAJU INDUSTRIES AT 9/- EPS 4/- PE ONLY 2. ITS BIO PHARMA COMPANY RUNNING GOOD. RISK IS VERY VERY LESS.TARGET 15/- . MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
2) CELESTIAL LABS AT 17/- EPS 10/- PE ONLY 1.6. ITS PHARMA AND BIO-INFO SERVICES; STOCK IS AVIALBLE IS VERY VERY CHEEP RATE. ITS DIVIDEND PAYING COMPANY. TARGET 35/-. MUMBAI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK.
3) NANDAN EXIM AT 1/- ; SOME BIG MUMABI OPERATORS ARE ENTERING IN THIS STOCK. BUY AS SOON AS POSSIBLE; YOU WILL GET MINIMUM 50% TO 100% RETURNS WITHIN 10 DAYS TO 15DAYS TIME.YEARLY LOW 0.85/- HIGH 9.65/- TARGET 2/-
Last week I have advised IFCI at 15.85/- Now IFCI is 21/-. 30% appreciation within one week time.
If you miss that opportunity buy above 3 stocks.
Same thing happening in above 3 stocks also for this week.
FORWARD THIS TO YOUR GROUPS AND FRIENDS ALSO; IT’S RISK FREE FOR INVESTMENTS.
REGARDS
BIG BULLS
(My Original Blog Post: http://www.onlineequitycalls.com/2008/12/india-policy-confusion-reignsin-action-words/)
Lee's Dhaba for more
"The situation way forward is quite uncertain. The RBI will take appropriate action as and when required," Subbarao told reporters after a meeting of the bank's governing board.
Situation quite comfortable: Subbarao
October 15, 2008 11:49 IST
"We have to review the entire situation. The situation is quite comfortable. Everything is under control," said the governor, who returned from Washington on Tuesday morning.
So am I to assume the future is bleaker today Dec 11, 2008 (post the rate cuts and the first stimulus package) than it was on Oct 15,2008? -Lee
Today, the Administration announced that there will be an announcement next week as announced in the fiscal stimulus announcement last week...maybe
11 Dec 2008, 1639 hrs IST, PTI
The second stimulus package, Nath said, would be aimed at generating employment and ensuring that the credit needs of the companies are met. In the next package, the Minister said, "We will look at engineering sector, greater re-finance facility for exporters and textile and agriculture sectors."
First Stimulus--Not Enough
December 9, 2008
As the business community's less-than-enthusiastic reaction to the package sank in, New Delhi sought to reassure investors. Kamal Nath, the Minister for Commerce & Industry, told a group of reporters outside his New Delhi office. "There is Step One, then there is Step Two, and then there is Step Three," he said.
If you know what you are going to do then why don't you just tell us...what is this three step shuffle? Or are you making it up as you along ?- Lee
